South Africa's comprehensive 2-0 series whitewash against Sri Lanka, sealed with a 109-run victory in the second Test at Gqeberha, has significantly altered the landscape of the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final race. This result, coming on the back of a gripping Monday morning where Sri Lanka needed 143 runs with two well-set batsmen, underscores South Africa's formidable position in the quest for a spot in the WTC final at Lord's in June 2025.

South Africa's Ascendancy

With this victory, South Africa has leaped to the forefront of the WTC standings, boasting a points percentage (PCT) of 63.33%. They now have only two matches left in their current cycle, hosting Pakistan. Securing just one win in these encounters would elevate their PCT to 61.11%, a threshold that would be tough for other contenders to surpass:

For South Africa to miss out, they would need to lose both remaining Tests to Pakistan while simultaneously seeing India win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 3-2 against Australia, and Sri Lanka defeating Australia 1-0 but no more.

Australia's Simplified Path

The outcome in Gqeberha has somewhat simplified Australia's strategy. They need to clinch at least a 3-2 victory in the upcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy to ensure their place in the final. Their subsequent series against Sri Lanka would then become inconsequential:

If Australia loses 3-2, they must sweep Sri Lanka 2-0 to secure qualification, assuming South Africa doesn't lose both games to Pakistan.
A 4-1 defeat to India would necessitate a 2-0 win over Sri Lanka and South Africa losing both Tests to Pakistan for Australia to qualify.

India's Crucial Series

For India, the equation is clear: win all three remaining Tests against Australia to guarantee a berth in the final. However, any slip-up would leave their fate in the hands of other series results:

Should India win 3-2, they could still be ousted if South Africa manages a 1-1 or better against Pakistan and Australia sweeps Sri Lanka 2-0.
A 4-1 loss would require Pakistan to defeat South Africa 2-0 and for Sri Lanka not to win both matches against Australia.

Sri Lanka's Diminishing Hopes

Sri Lanka's PCT has fallen to 45.45%, placing them fourth in the standings. Their path to the final is fraught with dependencies:

To have a chance, they must win both matches against Australia and hope for a 2-0 series win by Pakistan over South Africa.
A 1-0 victory for Pakistan over South Africa would necessitate an unlikely scenario of three draws in the Border-

Any loss in their series against Australia would eliminate Sri Lanka from contention.

All scenarios discussed assume no further points deductions for slow over rates.
[Submitted by Kevin Rademeyer]