South Africa, the most successful nation in Rugby World Cup history with four titles—most recently in 2023—appears unlikely to host the tournament again in the near future. Despite the enduring legacy of the 1995 World Cup, a unifying moment in post-apartheid South Africa, the country’s prospects of staging another edition have faded due to a combination of economic challenges, missed opportunities, and strategic shifts in global hosting dynamics.

The controversial loss of the 2023 hosting rights still stings. Despite being World Rugby’s preferred candidate following the technical evaluation process, South Africa was outmanoeuvred by France’s intense lobbying efforts. The decision provoked public outcry and left a deep scar within SA Rugby. Ironically, France’s hosting resulted in an estimated €70 million (R1.3 billion) loss, attributed to high operational costs, ambitious infrastructure upgrades, and lower-than-expected ticket revenues. For South Africa—with its weaker Rand and ageing stadium infrastructure—the financial burden of hosting such a tournament is simply unsustainable.

While the Springboks took revenge on the field by beating France en route to winning the trophy, the off-field setback had lasting consequences. SA Rugby has since withdrawn from future bidding processes, opting not to pursue the 2035 tournament, citing prohibitive costs and government reluctance to underwrite guarantees such as the R300 million required for the 2023 bid.

The global hosting landscape has also evolved. Australia and the USA are locked in to host in 2027 and 2031 respectively, backed by solid financial resources and modern infrastructure. Spain and a possible joint bid from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are frontrunners for 2035 and 2039, offering the kind of financial clout World Rugby now prioritises.

A senior rugby executive delivered a stark assessment to Rapport last week stating that: “I don’t think South Africa can compete financially to host the World Cup anymore. The World Cup is the only real revenue stream for World Rugby, so they will always go where the big money can be made.”
This sentiment reflects a broader truth: South Africa, while a giant on the field, is increasingly marginalised in the commercial arms race off it. The country's stadiums—many dating back to the 2010 FIFA World Cup—require expensive upgrades, while low ticket price potential and limited public funding further weaken its position.

World Rugby CEO Alan Gilpin’s recent remarks about favouring regional rotation and possibly returning to Europe for 2035 reinforce the shifting priorities. Reports from September 2024 confirmed SA Rugby had shelved any intentions to bid, further dampening hopes.

The 1995 World Cup remains a cherished moment in South Africa’s sporting history—immortalised by Nelson Mandela handing the trophy to Francois Pienaar. Yet thirty years on, the dream of reliving that magic on home soil seems out of reach. While the Springboks continue to lead the world in performance, the tournament itself appears destined for wealthier, better-equipped nations.

Any thoughts of South Africa hosting the Rugby World Cup in the future may have to be banished. For now, Springbok supporters must continue to watch from afar, proud of their team’s legacy, but painfully aware of their country’s off-field exclusion from the sport it helped shape.

[Submitted by Kevin Rademeyer]